The Scoreboard

Current Prediction Rate: correct 83.3% of the time

Right

Company: Redhill Biopharmaceuticals [$RDHL]
Drug: BEKINDA

Prediction: Phase 3 success
Outcome: Phase 3 success
Price Movement: $10.00 to $9.32 (-8%)
Note: I expect the price will rebound, but to remain consistent with how I report these price movements (day I published the article – day after top-line results), I unfortunately have to report a negative number here. Oh well, I was still right.

Company: Aeterna Zentaris [$AEZS]
Prediction: Phase 3 failure
Outcome: Phase 3 failure
Price Movement: $3.35 to $1.32 (-60%)

Company: Nektar Therapeutics [$NKTR]
Prediction: Phase 3 approval
Outcome: Phase 3 approval
Price Movement: $13.14 to $22.11 (+62%)

Company: Acorda Therapeutics [$ACOR]
Prediction: Phase 3 approval
Outcome: Phase 3 approval
Price Movement: $20.40 to $24.65 (+21%)

Company: Novan Therapeutics [NOVN]
Prediction: Phase 3 failure
Outcome: Phase 3 failure
Price Movement: $18.70 to $4.44 (-75%)

Company: Achaogen Pharmaceutical [AKAO]
Prediction: Phase 3 approval
Outcome: Phase 3 approval
Price Movement: $5.08 to $14.86 (+190%)

Company: Anthera Pharmaceuticals [$ANTH]
Prediction: Phase 3 failure
O
utcome: Phase 3 failure
P
rice Movement: $2.78 to $1.90 (-32%)

Company: Celator Pharmaceuticals [CPXX]
Prediction: Phase 3 approval
Outcome: Phase 3 approval, bought out by Jazz Pharma
Price Movement: $17.69 to $30.01 (+70%)

Company: Array Biopharmaceuticals [ARRY]
Prediction: Phase 3 approval
Outcome: Phase 3 approval
Price Movement: $3.65 to $6.61 (+81%)

Company: Palatin Technologies [PTN]
Prediction: Phase 3 approval
Outcome: Phase 3 approval
Price Movement: $0.50 to $1.00 (+100%)

Wrong

Company: Novavax [NVAX]
Prediction: Phase 3 approval
Outcome: Phase 3 failure
Price Movement: $8.34 to $1.29 (-85%)
A healthier-than-normal cold and flu season meant that testing didn’t reach statistical significance.¬†

Company: Heat Biologics [HTBX]
Prediction: Phase 2 approval
Outcome: Phase 2 failure
Price Movement: $2.87 to $1.64 (-65%)
Right about the safety, right about the efficacy, wrong about the timing.